Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 14.131540 17.245555 20.724794 24.877166 29.673860 35.016436 41.391602
2025-04-13 8.644685 12.309272 16.902216 22.981475 30.707214 40.083526 52.197042
2025-04-20 6.487272 10.415328 15.785393 23.445410 33.846014 47.213873 65.394573
2025-04-27 5.151847 9.185083 15.122868 24.130644 37.024343 54.351649 78.854636
2025-05-04 4.250741 8.333978 14.753851 25.023513 40.389775 61.809826 93.069076
2025-05-11 3.491317 7.507374 14.229586 25.524902 43.118713 68.455832 106.465558
2025-05-18 2.786132 6.590411 13.374369 25.339419 44.712967 73.488278 117.784026
2025-05-25 2.138226 5.603808 12.209293 24.452455 45.062122 76.620340 126.435465
2025-06-01 1.705736 4.928814 11.465069 24.138274 46.222589 80.953312 136.980604
2025-06-08 1.286662 4.153109 10.379323 23.053116 45.961990 83.006008 144.118768
2025-06-15 1.110052 3.900903 10.283616 23.747986 48.736806 89.952093 159.027691
2025-06-22 0.853296 3.353824 9.465020 22.949171 48.806393 92.499775 167.142970
2025-06-29 0.743351 3.206764 9.560634 24.089604 52.671182 101.879942 187.184834
2025-07-06 0.497100 2.532187 8.294774 22.289014 51.006867 101.982331 192.463920
2025-07-13 0.405003 2.322025 8.110268 22.744284 53.618981 109.515237 210.244037
2025-07-20 0.337375 2.166672 8.031116 23.413181 56.685608 117.990622 229.953551
2025-07-27 0.287087 2.054120 8.042717 24.284720 60.212326 127.451743 251.711366
2025-08-03 0.235437 1.901940 7.903385 24.774193 62.986383 135.681772 271.685848
2025-08-10 0.179925 1.686104 7.514406 24.593114 64.335610 141.354453 287.449497
2025-08-17 0.126200 1.423509 6.895376 23.727293 64.131426 144.097378 298.162410
2025-08-24 0.093078 1.249007 6.516140 23.420636 65.097213 149.070072 312.993308
2025-08-31 0.061119 1.031106 5.900768 22.361617 64.267687 150.516433 321.509154
2025-09-07 0.050450 0.977670 5.901160 23.039723 67.459001 159.960008 344.913238